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Tactical Hedging

Tactical Hedging

The VIX has been trending down since the start of 2023, dropping by more than 40% from 22.75 on January 3 to 12.68 on September 14, at the time of writing this. That's mainly due to encouraging economic news from the U.S. and increasing optimism about artificial

By Romano Sep 21, 2023

The Saudi Oil Squeeze vs. Iran Booming Oil Exports

The Saudi Oil Squeeze vs. Iran Booming Oil Exports

Saudi extends cuts. The oil market, yes, here we go again. In my opinion, trading the oil market is difficult. The oil market is a complex dynamic system influenced by many factors. One of the main benchmarks for oil prices is ICE Brent, a blend of crude oil from the

By Romano Sep 7, 2023

The Carry Trade and USDJPY: What You Need to Know

The Carry Trade and USDJPY: What You Need to Know

USDJPY forecast upgrade to 150 & 155 in 3-6 months, respectively. If you're unfamiliar with forex terms "base" and "quote," this forecast means the US dollar will go up against the yen. Higher for Longer The main reason for this bullish view on the USD dollar is that the interest rates

By Romano Sep 5, 2023

Russia Prolongs Oil Export Restrictions

Russia Prolongs Oil Export Restrictions

On August 31, ICE Brent oil prices remained strong and showed an uptick the following morning. ICE Brent is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for oil purchases worldwide. This market behavior was a response to an announcement from Russia

By Romano Sep 5, 2023

Monthly report - Recession Bells & Commodity Shocks: Is the Soft Landing Just a Hoax?

Monthly report - Recession Bells & Commodity Shocks: Is the Soft Landing Just a Hoax?

Central banks had a big say in how the economies and financial markets operate for the last year and a half. After a long stretch of loose monetary policy, politicians were shocked by inflation not being transitory, and politicians suddenly started pointing fingers at the central banks. Central banks worldwide

By Romano Aug 5, 2023

Bank of Japan - YCC tweaks with greater flexibility

Bank of Japan - YCC tweaks with greater flexibility

The dollar has been gaining strength against some other major currencies, partly due to positive economic data from the US and partly due to some weakness in the eurozone, after the European Central Bank meeting yesterday. However, one cause that has capped the dollar's upside is the lower USD/JPY

By Romano Jul 28, 2023

Ponzi Financing

Ponzi Financing

The University of Michigan released a survey last Friday with the news that's good for the economy, yet sent some fear through the markets but absorbed by the AI speculation pretty quickly. Surprisingly, 1-year inflation expectations went against analyst predictions and increased by one tick to 3.4% for the

By Romano Jul 20, 2023

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Risk is an inherent part of life, so we cannot eliminate it entirely; however, we can shift it.