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Duration Cracks, who cares what about my equities and crypto?

Duration Cracks, who cares what about my equities and crypto?

While the US equity markets had been trading "as if" the US is no longer a top-tier credit for some time, Moody's formal downgrade last Friday reinforces that perception and introduces constraints for investors bound by ratings-based mandates. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-downgrade-ripples-through-bond-market-causes-worries-stocks-2025-05-20/ The

By Romano May 22, 2025

From Left-Tail to Left Sidelined

From Left-Tail to Left Sidelined

Markets are scrambling to recalibrate after an unexpected, dramatic rollback from the U.S. and China over the weekend. In a move that exceeded expectations, the U.S. slashed tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China reciprocated with a drop from 125% to just 10%. Disclaimer: I

By Romano May 14, 2025

Handcuffed perpetual optimism

Handcuffed perpetual optimism

The Trump tariff "step-downs" may have taken the edge off of the worst-case trade war scenarios. Between the Treasury Bessent floating interventionist tools (including the "not-so-subtle nod to buybacks) and Waller softening up the Federal Reserve tone, there's a clear effort to engineer a sentiment

By Romano Apr 21, 2025

Political Circuit Breaker

Political Circuit Breaker

Trump's surprise move on April 6th to grant a 90-day tariff reprieve for trading partners facing elevated tariffs triggered a sharp relief rally across risk assets. Trump Puts 90-Day Pause on Higher Tariffs, But Hikes China RatesPresident Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs that hit

By Romano Apr 13, 2025

Goldman Sachs - Blackpilled - 'Lost decade' risk

Goldman Sachs - Blackpilled - 'Lost decade' risk

The S&P 500 has undoubtedly been a source of long-term wealth. Over the past four decades, asset prices experienced one of the most significant growth periods in financial history. More than 90% of the price appreciation in traditional equity-bond portfolios over the last 90 years occurred between 1984

By Romano Oct 24, 2024

Global equity newsletter: "The Neoliberal Era Killshot" 18-07-2024

Global equity newsletter: "The Neoliberal Era Killshot" 18-07-2024

First of all, before looking at the markets, let's go over what happened over the weekend. Over the weekend, during a bustling rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump faced a near-fatal shot. A shooter, concealed on a nearby rooftop, targeted Trump. A gunshot echoed, and a bullet grazed

By Romano Jul 18, 2024

The BTFP Liquidity Drain

The BTFP Liquidity Drain

Before moving on to crypto, let's start with the situation in the Middle East, especially the Red Sea crisis, which is getting more tense every day. Imagine solving a water shortage by dumping more buckets into the mix when there's a tank leak. That's

By Romano Mar 16, 2024

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Risk is an inherent part of life, so we cannot eliminate it entirely; however, we can shift it.