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Duration Cracks, who cares what about my equities and crypto?

Duration Cracks, who cares what about my equities and crypto?

While the US equity markets had been trading "as if" the US is no longer a top-tier credit for some time, Moody's formal downgrade last Friday reinforces that perception and introduces constraints for investors bound by ratings-based mandates. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/

By Romano May 22, 2025

From Left-Tail to Left Sidelined

From Left-Tail to Left Sidelined

Markets are scrambling to recalibrate after an unexpected, dramatic rollback from the U.S. and China over the weekend. In a move that exceeded expectations, the U.S. slashed tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China reciprocated with a drop from 125% to just 10%. Disclaimer: I

By Romano May 14, 2025

Exceptional No More: The U.S. Lost Its Halo

Exceptional No More: The U.S. Lost Its Halo

For much of the 20th and 21st centuries, the United States has enjoyed a unique position of financial dominance over the rest of the world. This is what's called "U.S. exceptionalism," implied by the phrase itself, but not only superior economic performance, but also structural

By Romano Apr 16, 2025

The Australian Dollar - Iron Ore and China

The Australian Dollar - Iron Ore and China

The Australian Dollar seems to be edging higher over the next few quarters. By the end of 2024, we could see AUD/USD hovering around 0.69 and perhaps 0.72 somewhere, most likely late in 2025. But it will be a long road that takes time. One of the

By Romano Aug 29, 2024

Global equity newsletter: "The Neoliberal Era Killshot" 18-07-2024

Global equity newsletter: "The Neoliberal Era Killshot" 18-07-2024

First of all, before looking at the markets, let's go over what happened over the weekend. Over the weekend, during a bustling rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump faced a near-fatal shot. A shooter, concealed on a nearby rooftop, targeted Trump. A gunshot echoed, and a bullet

By Romano Jul 18, 2024

$350 Billion Stealth Injection into the financial system

$350 Billion Stealth Injection into the financial system

Why did everything pump? Seasonality, year-to-end rally, Bitcoin spot ETF, or was it $350 Billion injected into the financial system? There were several factors that contributed to the November rally in the stock market. * These included unprecedented buying from CTAs * massive buybacks by corporations exceeding $5 billion * extreme

By Romano Dec 10, 2023

🔥 Geopolitical Tension, War & the Financial Markets

🔥 Geopolitical Tension, War & the Financial Markets

The recent developments over the past few days have reflected a complex interplay of economic, geopolitical, and market dynamics. The tensions in the Middle East's geopolitical chessboard escalated. There is uncertainty in the global economic and market outlook due to factors such as the conflict between Israel and

By Romano Oct 18, 2023

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Risk is an inherent part of life, so we cannot eliminate it entirely; however, we can shift it.